[SMM Analysis] Refined Nickel Supply Increased in August While Spot Trading Remained Sluggish

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In August 2025, SMM's refined nickel production rose 7% MoM and 21% YoY, with cumulative growth reaching 26% YoY. The operating rate of domestic refined nickel producers stood at 66%. Top-tier enterprises saw higher operating rates, while other smelters maintained stable output, leading to an overall production increase.

Price-wise, the average spot price of #1 refined nickel in August was 121,945 yuan/mt, down 292 yuan/mt MoM, with futures prices in the doldrums. In the spot market, Jinchuan nickel's average premium reached 2,300 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt MoM, as producers showed strong reluctance to budge on prices. Premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel remained relatively stable within the -100-300 yuan/mt range.

Demand side, August remained an off-season for downstream consumption. Alloy and electroplating plants showed weak procurement demand, stockpiling only when futures prices dipped. Spot trading volume showed little change from July. With the approaching September-October peak season, downstream orders are expected to recover, driving demand and boosting spot trading activity.

Refined nickel output in September is projected to increase 4% MoM, with new refined nickel projects gradually commencing production to further boost supply.